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Oxford JS, Lambkin R, Elliot A, et al. Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century. Vaccine. 2006;24(44):6742-6doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101.
Oxford, J. S., Lambkin, R., Elliot, A., Daniels, R., Sefton, A., & Gill, D. (2006). Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century. Vaccine, 24(44), 6742-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101
Oxford, J S, et al. "Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century." Vaccine vol. 24,44 (2006): 6742-6. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101
Oxford JS, Lambkin R, Elliot A, Daniels R, Sefton A, Gill D. Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century. Vaccine. 2006 Nov 10;24(44):6742-6. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101. Epub 2006 Jun 16. PMID: 17069939.
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Vaccine. 2006 Nov 10;24(44):6742-6. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101. Epub 2006 Jun 16.

Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century.

Vaccine

J S Oxford, R Lambkin, A Elliot, R Daniels, A Sefton, D Gill

Affiliations

  1. Retroscreen Virology Ltd., Centre for Infectious Diseases, Bart's and the London, Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry, 327 Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom. [email protected]

PMID: 17069939 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101

Abstract

Re-analysis of the influenza pandemic of 1918 has given reassurance about a rather low reproductive number (R(o)), a prolonged herald wave of virus and that the skewed mortality towards the young adult could be a singularly unique event dependent upon previous infection history, perhaps not to be repeated in a future pandemic. Over 99% of those who contracted the virus survived, in spite of the absence of antivirals, vaccine and antibiotics for the secondary bacteria infections which probably accounted for one-third of the 50 million deaths. Therefore, in spite of a three-fold population increase since 1918 and 100 thousand plane journeys daily, judicious and careful planning together with a stockpile of antiviral drugs, oseltamivir, zanamivir and M2 blockers and a generic H5N1 vaccine, and application of hygiene would be expected to reduce mortality in a new pandemic, to figures significantly less than 1918.

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