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Oreskes N, Shrader-Frechette K, Belitz K. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences. Science. 1994;263(5147):641-6doi: 10.1126/science.263.5147.641.
Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechette, K., & Belitz, K. (1994). Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences. Science (New York, N.Y.), 263(5147), 641-6. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.263.5147.641
Oreskes, N, et al. "Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences." Science (New York, N.Y.) vol. 263,5147 (1994): 641-6. doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.263.5147.641
Oreskes N, Shrader-Frechette K, Belitz K. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences. Science. 1994 Feb 04;263(5147):641-6. doi: 10.1126/science.263.5147.641. PMID: 17747657.
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Science. 1994 Feb 04;263(5147):641-6. doi: 10.1126/science.263.5147.641.

Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

N Oreskes, K Shrader-Frechette, K Belitz

PMID: 17747657 DOI: 10.1126/science.263.5147.641

Abstract

Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.

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