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Richard SA, Sugaya N, Simonsen L, et al. A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning. Epidemiol Infect. 2009;137(8):1062-72doi: 10.1017/S0950268809002088.
Richard, S. A., Sugaya, N., Simonsen, L., Miller, M. A., & Viboud, C. (2009). A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning. Epidemiology and infection, 137(8), 1062-72. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268809002088
Richard, S A, et al. "A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning." Epidemiology and infection vol. 137,8 (2009): 1062-72. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268809002088
Richard SA, Sugaya N, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Viboud C. A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning. Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Aug;137(8):1062-72. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809002088. Epub 2009 Feb 12. PMID: 19215637; PMCID: PMC2704924.
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Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Aug;137(8):1062-72. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809002088. Epub 2009 Feb 12.

A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning.

Epidemiology and infection

S A Richard, N Sugaya, L Simonsen, M A Miller, C Viboud

Affiliations

  1. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

PMID: 19215637 PMCID: PMC2704924 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268809002088

Abstract

Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. By contrast, the risk of death was low in the very young and very old. In Japan, the overall mortality impact was not limited to winter 1918-1919, and continued during winter 1919-1920. Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.

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