Display options
Cite
Ozkaynak H, Frey HC, Burke J, et al. Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM(2.5) case study. Atmos Environ (1994). 2009;43(9):1641-1649doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.008.
Ozkaynak, H., Frey, H. C., Burke, J., & Pinder, R. W. (2009). Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM(2.5) case study. Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994), 43(9), 1641-1649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.008
Ozkaynak, Halûk, et al. "Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM(2.5) case study." Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994) vol. 43,9 (2009): 1641-1649. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.008
Ozkaynak H, Frey HC, Burke J, Pinder RW. Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM(2.5) case study. Atmos Environ (1994). 2009 Mar 01;43(9):1641-1649. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.008. PMID: 20041038; PMCID: PMC2798576.
Copy Download .nbib Format: NLM
Share it on

Atmos Environ (1994). 2009 Mar 01;43(9):1641-1649. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.008.

Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM(2.5) case study.

Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)

Halûk Ozkaynak, H Christopher Frey, Janet Burke, Robert W Pinder

Affiliations

  1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory (E205-01), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.

PMID: 20041038 PMCID: PMC2798576 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.008

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of human exposures and health effects due to air pollution involve detailed characterization of impacts of air quality on exposure and dose. A key challenge is to integrate these three components on a consistent spatial and temporal basis taking into account linkages and feedbacks. The current state-of-practice for such assessments is to exercise emission, meteorology, air quality, exposure, and dose models separately, and to link them together by using the output of one model as input to the subsequent downstream model. Quantification of variability and uncertainty has been an important topic in the exposure assessment community for a number of years. Variability refers to differences in the value of a quantity (e.g., exposure) over time, space, or among individuals. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity. An emerging challenge is how to quantify variability and uncertainty in integrated assessments over the source-to-dose continuum by considering contributions from individual as well as linked components. For a case study of fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) in North Carolina during July 2002, we characterize variability and uncertainty associated with each of the individual concentration, exposure and dose models that are linked, and use a conceptual framework to quantify and evaluate the implications of coupled model uncertainties. We find that the resulting overall uncertainties due to combined effects of both variability and uncertainty are smaller (usually by a factor of 3-4) than the crudely multiplied model-specific overall uncertainty ratios. Future research will need to examine the impact of potential dependencies among the model components by conducting a truly coupled modeling analysis.

References

  1. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol. 2000 Jan-Feb;10(1):86-97 - PubMed
  2. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol. 2001 Nov-Dec;11(6):470-89 - PubMed
  3. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol. 2005 Sep;15(5):439-57 - PubMed

Publication Types

Grant support