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Solomon S, Daniel JS, Sanford TJ, et al. Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010;107(43):18354-9doi: 10.1073/pnas.1006282107.
Solomon, S., Daniel, J. S., Sanford, T. J., Murphy, D. M., Plattner, G. K., Knutti, R., & Friedlingstein, P. (2010). Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(43), 18354-9. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1006282107
Solomon, Susan, et al. "Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America vol. 107,43 (2010): 18354-9. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1006282107
Solomon S, Daniel JS, Sanford TJ, Murphy DM, Plattner GK, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P. Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Oct 26;107(43):18354-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1006282107. Epub 2010 Oct 11. PMID: 20937898; PMCID: PMC2972948.
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Oct 26;107(43):18354-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1006282107. Epub 2010 Oct 11.

Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Susan Solomon, John S Daniel, Todd J Sanford, Daniel M Murphy, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Reto Knutti, Pierre Friedlingstein

Affiliations

  1. Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. [email protected]

PMID: 20937898 PMCID: PMC2972948 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1006282107

Abstract

Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change. Carbon dioxide displays exceptional persistence that renders its warming nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y. Here we show that the warming due to non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, although not irreversible, persists notably longer than the anthropogenic changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations themselves. We explore why the persistence of warming depends not just on the decay of a given greenhouse gas concentration but also on climate system behavior, particularly the timescales of heat transfer linked to the ocean. For carbon dioxide and methane, nonlinear optical absorption effects also play a smaller but significant role in prolonging the warming. In effect, dampening factors that slow temperature increase during periods of increasing concentration also slow the loss of energy from the Earth's climate system if radiative forcing is reduced. Approaches to climate change mitigation options through reduction of greenhouse gas or aerosol emissions therefore should not be expected to decrease climate change impacts as rapidly as the gas or aerosol lifetime, even for short-lived species; such actions can have their greatest effect if undertaken soon enough to avoid transfer of heat to the deep ocean.

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