Display options
Cite
van Kleef E, Robotham JV, Jit M, et al. Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review. BMC Infect Dis. 2013;13:294doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-294.
van Kleef, E., Robotham, J. V., Jit, M., Deeny, S. R., & Edmunds, W. J. (2013). Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review. BMC infectious diseases, 13294. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-13-294
van Kleef, Esther, et al. "Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review." BMC infectious diseases vol. 13 (2013): 294. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-13-294
van Kleef E, Robotham JV, Jit M, Deeny SR, Edmunds WJ. Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review. BMC Infect Dis. 2013 Jun 28;13:294. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-294. PMID: 23809195; PMCID: PMC3701468.
Copy Download .nbib Format: NLM
Share it on

BMC Infect Dis. 2013 Jun 28;13:294. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-294.

Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review.

BMC infectious diseases

Esther van Kleef, Julie V Robotham, Mark Jit, Sarah R Deeny, William J Edmunds

Affiliations

  1. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Department, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, Centre of Mathematical Modelling, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. [email protected]

PMID: 23809195 PMCID: PMC3701468 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-294

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time.

METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings.

RESULTS: In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries.The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data.

CONCLUSIONS: Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and more advanced methods for formal model fitting and sensitivity analyses. Insights gained from these models could be broadened to a wider range of pathogens and settings. Improvements in the availability of data and statistical methods could enhance the predictive ability of models.

References

  1. Vet Microbiol. 2013 Jan 25;161(3-4):344-9 - PubMed
  2. J Infect Dis. 2002 Mar 15;185(6):766-73 - PubMed
  3. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009 Oct;15(10):1547-55 - PubMed
  4. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Jul 29;105(30):10625-30 - PubMed
  5. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2005 Jul;26(7):638-45 - PubMed
  6. BMC Infect Dis. 2010 Aug 25;10:254 - PubMed
  7. Math Biosci Eng. 2010 Oct;7(4):779-92 - PubMed
  8. Med Decis Making. 2011 Jul-Aug;31(4):675-92 - PubMed
  9. Curr Opin Infect Dis. 2011 Jun;24(3):279-87 - PubMed
  10. J Biol Dyn. 2010 Jan;4(1):115-29 - PubMed
  11. PLoS Comput Biol. 2010 Mar 19;6(3):e1000715 - PubMed
  12. J R Soc Interface. 2007 Aug 22;4(15):745-54 - PubMed
  13. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 1998 Sep-Oct;93(5):587-8 - PubMed
  14. PLoS Med. 2011 Oct;8(10):e1001104 - PubMed
  15. BMJ. 2011 Oct 05;343:d5694 - PubMed
  16. Clin Infect Dis. 2004 Apr 15;38(8):1108-15 - PubMed
  17. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011 Mar;7(3):e1001094 - PubMed
  18. PLoS Pathog. 2011 Apr;7(4):e1001334 - PubMed
  19. PLoS Med. 2012 Feb;9(2):e1001172 - PubMed
  20. Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Mar;136(3):289-98 - PubMed
  21. BMC Infect Dis. 2010 Feb 16;10:29 - PubMed
  22. Biostatistics. 2007 Apr;8(2):383-401 - PubMed
  23. Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Oct;134(5):1082-91 - PubMed
  24. Clin Infect Dis. 2012 Aug;55 Suppl 2:S88-92 - PubMed
  25. J Theor Biol. 2007 Dec 7;249(3):487-99 - PubMed
  26. Math Med Biol. 2005 Jun;22(2):187-208 - PubMed
  27. Pediatrics. 2011 Sep;128(3):e591-9 - PubMed
  28. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2005 Jul;73(1):17-25 - PubMed
  29. Clin Infect Dis. 2009 Feb 1;48(3):274-84 - PubMed
  30. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 Jun;32(6):562-72 - PubMed
  31. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 Nov;32(11):1073-8 - PubMed
  32. Lancet. 2010 May 1;375(9725):1557-68 - PubMed
  33. J Infect Dis. 2005 Dec 1;192(11):2004-11 - PubMed
  34. PLoS Med. 2008 Oct 28;5(10):e200 - PubMed
  35. J Theor Biol. 2010 Jun 7;264(3):645-56 - PubMed
  36. Proc Biol Sci. 2007 Mar 7;274(1610):611-7 - PubMed
  37. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Apr 4;103(14):5620-5 - PubMed
  38. Microbiol Immunol. 2007;51(9):823-32 - PubMed
  39. Pharmacoeconomics. 2011 May;29(5):371-86 - PubMed
  40. J Hosp Infect. 2009 Mar;71(3):214-22 - PubMed
  41. BMC Infect Dis. 2008 Sep 02;8:114 - PubMed
  42. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2010 Sep;31(9):893-900 - PubMed
  43. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2005 Jul;26(7):598-606 - PubMed
  44. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 1997 Feb;18(2):84-92 - PubMed
  45. J Infect Dis. 1999 Apr;179(4):883-91 - PubMed
  46. Math Biosci. 2010 Nov;228(1):45-55 - PubMed
  47. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2005 Jul;26(7):607-15 - PubMed
  48. Crit Care Med. 2005 Jan;33(1):168-76; discussion 253-4 - PubMed
  49. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Apr 16;99(8):5601-5 - PubMed
  50. J Theor Biol. 2007 Apr 7;245(3):470-81 - PubMed
  51. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 Feb;32(2):191-3 - PubMed
  52. J Infect Dis. 2006 May 15;193(10):1473-4 - PubMed
  53. Clin Infect Dis. 2007 Oct 15;45(8):992-8 - PubMed
  54. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2001 Aug;7(8):432-7 - PubMed
  55. Vaccine. 2009 Oct 19;27(44):6261-7 - PubMed
  56. J Theor Biol. 2008 Oct 7;254(3):655-66 - PubMed
  57. J Hosp Infect. 2012 Feb;80(2):156-61 - PubMed
  58. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2007 Nov;2(6):1176-85 - PubMed
  59. Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 2011 Nov;104(2):260-5 - PubMed
  60. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Sep 13;102(37):13343-8 - PubMed
  61. Epidemiol Infect. 2007 Feb;135(2):328-42 - PubMed
  62. Int J Biomed Comput. 1993 Jul;33(1):65-81 - PubMed
  63. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Feb;9(2):204-10 - PubMed
  64. Bull Math Biol. 2007 Oct;69(7):2227-48 - PubMed
  65. J Hosp Infect. 2011 Dec;79(4):302-8 - PubMed
  66. J Hosp Infect. 2009 Jan;71(1):49-56 - PubMed
  67. Lancet. 2011 Jan 1;377(9759):63-73 - PubMed
  68. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 Feb;32(2):136-47 - PubMed
  69. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 Jun;32(6):553-61 - PubMed
  70. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Jul 6;101(27):10223-8 - PubMed
  71. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Sep 7;101(36):13285-90 - PubMed
  72. Bull Math Biol. 2011 Jul;73(7):1413-42 - PubMed
  73. J Biol Dyn. 2011 Jan;5(1):27-43 - PubMed
  74. Stat Med. 2009 Dec 20;28(29):3626-42 - PubMed
  75. Am J Infect Control. 2006 Dec;34(10):621-6 - PubMed
  76. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Mar 9;101(10):3709-14 - PubMed
  77. Proc Biol Sci. 2012 Feb 7;279(1728):444-50 - PubMed
  78. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2012 Jul;18(7):635-45 - PubMed
  79. Pharmacoeconomics. 2011 Jan;29(1):35-49 - PubMed
  80. Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Sep 1;168(5):548-57 - PubMed
  81. Math Biosci Eng. 2010 Jul;7(3):527-52 - PubMed
  82. Biometrics. 2008 Sep;64(3):851-859 - PubMed
  83. Am J Gastroenterol. 2012 Jan;107(1):89-95 - PubMed
  84. Lancet. 2011 Jan 15;377(9761):228-41 - PubMed
  85. Med Tekh. 1999 Mar-Apr;(2):14-6 - PubMed
  86. Math Model Nat Phenom. 2010;5(3):76-73 - PubMed
  87. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1999 Jun 8;96(12):6908-13 - PubMed
  88. Lancet Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;6(1):39-45 - PubMed
  89. PLoS One. 2011;6(7):e20604 - PubMed
  90. Euro Surveill. 2010 Oct 14;15(41):19688 - PubMed
  91. Biostatistics. 2004 Apr;5(2):223-37 - PubMed
  92. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2000 Feb 15;97(4):1938-43 - PubMed
  93. IEEE Trans Inf Technol Biomed. 2011 Nov;15(6):877-89 - PubMed
  94. J Hosp Infect. 2007 Jun;65 Suppl 2:93-9 - PubMed
  95. Lancet. 2007 Oct 27;370(9597):1500-7 - PubMed
  96. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2011 Oct;55(10):4888-95 - PubMed
  97. J Hosp Infect. 2009 Dec;73(4):364-70 - PubMed
  98. Am J Epidemiol. 2007 Oct 1;166(7):841-51 - PubMed
  99. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Oct 27;106(43):18420-5 - PubMed
  100. PLoS One. 2011 Mar 31;6(3):e14783 - PubMed
  101. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2009 Nov;30(11):1084-9 - PubMed
  102. J Infect Dis. 2002 Feb 15;185(4):481-8 - PubMed
  103. J R Soc Interface. 2011 Apr 6;8(57):578-84 - PubMed
  104. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Feb 22;102(8):3153-8 - PubMed
  105. PLoS Comput Biol. 2012;8(11):e1002768 - PubMed
  106. J Infect Dis. 2012 Nov 15;206(10):1549-57 - PubMed
  107. Stat Med. 2010 Sep 10;29(20):2069-77 - PubMed
  108. J Hosp Infect. 1999 Oct;43(2):131-47 - PubMed
  109. PLoS Comput Biol. 2009 Aug;5(8):e1000471 - PubMed
  110. Comput Biomed Res. 1997 Aug;30(4):307-22 - PubMed

MeSH terms

Publication Types