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HPB Surg. 2013;2013:367581. doi: 10.1155/2013/367581. Epub 2013 Sep 24.

Comparison of Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, BISAP, APACHE-II, CTSI Scores, IL-6, CRP, and Procalcitonin in Predicting Severity, Organ Failure, Pancreatic Necrosis, and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis.

HPB surgery : a world journal of hepatic, pancreatic and biliary surgery

Ajay K Khanna, Susanta Meher, Shashi Prakash, Satyendra Kumar Tiwary, Usha Singh, Arvind Srivastava, V K Dixit

Affiliations

  1. Department of General Surgery, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Ultra Pradesh 221005, India.

PMID: 24204087 PMCID: PMC3800571 DOI: 10.1155/2013/367581

Abstract

Background. Multifactorial scorings, radiological scores, and biochemical markers may help in early prediction of severity, pancreatic necrosis, and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. BISAP, APACHE-II, MOSS, and SIRS scores were calculated using data within 24 hrs of admission, whereas Ranson and Glasgow scores after 48 hrs of admission; CTSI was calculated on day 4 whereas IL-6 and CRP values at end of study. Predictive accuracy of scoring systems, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of various markers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, admission to intensive care units and mortality were calculated. Results. Of 72 patients, 31 patients had organ failure and local complication classified as severe acute pancreatitis, 17 had pancreatic necrosis, and 9 died (12.5%). Area under curves for Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, APACHE-II, BISAP, CTSI, IL-6, and CRP in predicting SAP were 0.85, 0.75, 0.73, 0.73, 0.88, 0.80, 0.90, and 0.91, respectively, for pancreatic necrosis 0.70, 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.68, 0.61, 0.75, 0.86, and 0.90, respectively, and for mortality 0.84, 0.83, 0.77, 0.76, 0.86, 0.83, 0.57, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively. Conclusion. CRP and IL-6 have shown a promising result in early detection of severity and pancreatic necrosis whereas APACHE-II and Ranson score in predicting AP related mortality in this study.

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