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Stat Sci. 2014 Nov;29(4):640-661. doi: 10.1214/13-STS450.

Q- and A-learning Methods for Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes.

Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Phillip J Schulte, Anastasios A Tsiatis, Eric B Laber, Marie Davidian

Affiliations

  1. Biostatistician, Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina 27701, USA ( [email protected] ).
  2. Gertrude M. Cox Distinguished Professor, Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8203, USA ( [email protected] ).
  3. Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8203, USA ( [email protected] ).
  4. William Neal Reynolds Professor, Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8203, USA ( [email protected] ).

PMID: 25620840 PMCID: PMC4300556 DOI: 10.1214/13-STS450

Abstract

In clinical practice, physicians make a series of treatment decisions over the course of a patient's disease based on his/her baseline and evolving characteristics. A dynamic treatment regime is a set of sequential decision rules that operationalizes this process. Each rule corresponds to a decision point and dictates the next treatment action based on the accrued information. Using existing data, a key goal is estimating the optimal regime, that, if followed by the patient population, would yield the most favorable outcome on average.

Keywords: Advantage learning; bias-variance tradeoff; model misspecification; personalized medicine; potential outcomes; sequential decision making

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