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Bi YL, Du XL, Li S. Peer-comparison overconfidence: Does it measure bias in self-evaluation?. Psych J. 2012;2(1):17-25doi: 10.1002/pchj.11.
Bi, Y. L., Du, X. L., & Li, S. (2013). Peer-comparison overconfidence: Does it measure bias in self-evaluation?. PsyCh journal, 2(1), 17-25. https://doi.org/10.1002/pchj.11
Bi, Yan-Ling, et al. "Peer-comparison overconfidence: Does it measure bias in self-evaluation?." PsyCh journal vol. 2,1 (2013): 17-25. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/pchj.11
Bi YL, Du XL, Li S. Peer-comparison overconfidence: Does it measure bias in self-evaluation?. Psych J. 2013 Apr;2(1):17-25. doi: 10.1002/pchj.11. Epub 2012 Aug 12. PMID: 26272861.
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Psych J. 2013 Apr;2(1):17-25. doi: 10.1002/pchj.11. Epub 2012 Aug 12.

Peer-comparison overconfidence: Does it measure bias in self-evaluation?.

PsyCh journal

Yan-Ling Bi, Xue-Lei Du, Shu Li

Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  2. School of Psychology, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China.

PMID: 26272861 DOI: 10.1002/pchj.11

Abstract

Overconfidence is generally regarded as one of the most robust findings in the psychology of judgment. A precise method for evaluating overconfidence is essential if researchers are to validate these findings. Although peer-comparison questions are a convenient tool for measuring overconfidence, their validity has been questioned. We employed a specific paradigm to verify the validity, and the respondents were asked to predict a verifiable future event in a real-world setting that allowed empirical checking and comparison between the actual result and the prediction. Studies 1 and 2 found that the actual percentile of overconfidence could be accurately predicted using our initial calculation of participants' peer-comparison overconfidence in answering questions about academic performance. Study 3 found a similar effect when using questions related to job hunting. All studies indicated that peer-comparison questions are valid for measuring bias in self-evaluation. Thus, future studies could employ peer-comparison questions to investigate the domain specificity versus the domain generality of overconfidence.

© 2012 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Keywords: actual percentile of overconfidence; overconfidence; peer-comparison overconfidence; peer-comparison question

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