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Charvat H, Goto A, Goto M, et al. Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults. J Diabetes Investig. 2015;6(5):533-42doi: 10.1111/jdi.12333.
Charvat, H., Goto, A., Goto, M., Inoue, M., Heianza, Y., Arase, Y., Sone, H., Nakagami, T., Song, X., Qiao, Q., Tuomilehto, J., Tsugane, S., Noda, M., & Inoue, M. (2015). Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults. Journal of diabetes investigation, 6(5), 533-42. https://doi.org/10.1111/jdi.12333
Charvat, Hadrien, et al. "Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults." Journal of diabetes investigation vol. 6,5 (2015): 533-42. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jdi.12333
Charvat H, Goto A, Goto M, Inoue M, Heianza Y, Arase Y, Sone H, Nakagami T, Song X, Qiao Q, Tuomilehto J, Tsugane S, Noda M, Inoue M. Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults. J Diabetes Investig. 2015 Sep;6(5):533-42. doi: 10.1111/jdi.12333. Epub 2015 Mar 02. PMID: 26417410; PMCID: PMC4578492.
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J Diabetes Investig. 2015 Sep;6(5):533-42. doi: 10.1111/jdi.12333. Epub 2015 Mar 02.

Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults.

Journal of diabetes investigation

Hadrien Charvat, Atsushi Goto, Maki Goto, Machiko Inoue, Yoriko Heianza, Yasuji Arase, Hirohito Sone, Tomoko Nakagami, Xin Song, Qing Qiao, Jaakko Tuomilehto, Shoichiro Tsugane, Mitsuhiko Noda, Manami Inoue

Affiliations

  1. Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo, Japan.
  2. Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine Tokyo, Japan.
  3. General Medical Education Center, Teikyo University Tokyo, Japan.
  4. Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Niigata University Niigata, Japan.
  5. Health Management Center, Toranomon Hospital Tokyo, Japan.
  6. Diabetes Center, Tokyo Women's Medical University Tokyo, Japan.
  7. Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki Helsinki, Finland ; Department of Chronic Disease Prevention, National Institute for Health and Welfare Helsinki, Finland.
  8. Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki Helsinki, Finland ; Department of Chronic Disease Prevention, National Institute for Health and Welfare Helsinki, Finland ; R&D AstraZeneca AB Mölndal, Sweden.
  9. Department of Chronic Disease Prevention, National Institute for Health and Welfare Helsinki, Finland ; Center for Vascular Prevention, Danube University Krems Krems, Austria ; King Abdulaziz University Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
  10. AXA Department of Health and Human Security, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo Tokyo, Japan.

PMID: 26417410 PMCID: PMC4578492 DOI: 10.1111/jdi.12333

Abstract

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To provide age- and sex-specific trends, age-standardized trends, and projections of diabetes prevalence through the year 2030 in the Japanese adult population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the present meta-regression analysis, we included 161,087 adults from six studies and nine national health surveys carried out between 1988 and 2011 in Japan. We assessed the prevalence of diabetes using a recorded history of diabetes or, for the population of individuals without known diabetes, either a glycated hemoglobin level of ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or the 1999 World Health Organization criteria (i.e., a fasting plasma glucose level of ≥126 mg/dL and/or 2-h glucose level of ≥200 mg/dL in the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test).

RESULTS: For both sexes, prevalence appeared to remain unchanged over the years in all age categories except for men aged 70 years or older, in whom a significant increase in prevalence with time was observed. Age-standardized diabetes prevalence estimates based on the Japanese population of the corresponding year showed marked increasing trends: diabetes prevalence was 6.1% among women (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.5-6.7), 9.9% (95% CI 9.2-10.6) among men, and 7.9% (95% CI 7.5-8.4) among the total population in 2010, and was expected to rise by 2030 to 6.7% (95% CI 5.2-9.2), 13.1% (95% CI 10.9-16.7) and 9.8% (95% CI 8.5-12.0), respectively. In contrast, the age-standardized diabetes prevalence using a fixed population appeared to remain unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS: This large-scale meta-regression analysis shows that a substantial increase in diabetes prevalence is expected in Japan during the next few decades, mainly as a result of the aging of the adult population.

Keywords: Diabetes; Population aging; Prevalence

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