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Koellinger P, Treffers T. Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure. PLoS One. 2015;10(12):e0143263doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0143263.
Koellinger, P., & Treffers, T. (2015). Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure. PloS one, 10(12), e0143263. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143263
Koellinger, Philipp, and Treffers, Theresa. "Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure." PloS one vol. 10,12 (2015): e0143263. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143263
Koellinger P, Treffers T. Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure. PLoS One. 2015 Dec 17;10(12):e0143263. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0143263. eCollection 2015. PMID: 26678704; PMCID: PMC4683002.
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PLoS One. 2015 Dec 17;10(12):e0143263. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0143263. eCollection 2015.

Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure.

PloS one

Philipp Koellinger, Theresa Treffers

Affiliations

  1. Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
  2. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  3. Department of Complex Trait Genetics, Center for Neurogenomics and Cognitive Research, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  4. School of Industrial Engineering & Innovation Sciences, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.

PMID: 26678704 PMCID: PMC4683002 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0143263

Abstract

Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real-life domains, with often far-reaching consequences. This study identifies a mechanism that can cause overconfidence and demonstrates a simple, effective countermeasure in an incentive-compatible experimental study. We observed that joy induced overconfidence if the reason for joy (an unexpected gift) was unrelated to the judgment task and if participants were not made specifically aware of this mood manipulation. In contrast, we observed well-calibrated judgments among participants in a control group who were in their resting mood. Furthermore, we found well-calibrated judgments among participants who received the joyful mood induction together with questions that forced them to reflect on their current mood and the (ir)relevance of its cause to our judgment tasks. Our findings suggest that being aware of one's positive mood and the reason for that mood may effectively reduce overconfidence for a short period.

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