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Zissimopoulos J, Crimmins E, St Clair P. The Value of Delaying Alzheimer's Disease Onset. Forum Health Econ Policy. 2014;18(1):25-39doi: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0013.
Zissimopoulos, J., Crimmins, E., & St Clair, P. (2014). The Value of Delaying Alzheimer's Disease Onset. Forum for health economics & policy, 18(1), 25-39. https://doi.org/10.1515/fhep-2014-0013
Zissimopoulos, Julie, et al. "The Value of Delaying Alzheimer's Disease Onset." Forum for health economics & policy vol. 18,1 (2014): 25-39. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/fhep-2014-0013
Zissimopoulos J, Crimmins E, St Clair P. The Value of Delaying Alzheimer's Disease Onset. Forum Health Econ Policy. 2014 Nov;18(1):25-39. doi: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0013. Epub 2014 Nov 04. PMID: 27134606; PMCID: PMC4851168.
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Forum Health Econ Policy. 2014 Nov;18(1):25-39. doi: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0013. Epub 2014 Nov 04.

The Value of Delaying Alzheimer's Disease Onset.

Forum for health economics & policy

Julie Zissimopoulos, Eileen Crimmins, Patricia St Clair

Affiliations

  1. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California, 635 Downey Way, Los Angeles, CA 90089-3331, USA.
  2. Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California, 3715 McClintock Ave., Los Angeles, CA, USA.
  3. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California, 635 Downey Way, Los Angeles, CA, USA.

PMID: 27134606 PMCID: PMC4851168 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2014-0013

Abstract

Alzheimer's disease (AD) extracts a heavy societal toll. The value of medical advances that delay onset of AD could be significant. Using data from nationally representative samples from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2008) and Aging Demographics and Memory Study (2001-2009), we estimate the prevalence and incidence of AD and the formal and informal health care costs associated with it. We use microsimulation to project future prevalence and costs of AD under different treatment scenarios. We find from 2010 to 2050, the number of individuals ages 70+ with AD increases 153%, from 3.6 to 9.1 million, and annual costs increase from $307 billion ($181B formal, $126B informal costs) to $1.5 trillion. 2010 annual per person costs were $71,303 and double by 2050. Medicare and Medicaid are paying 75% of formal costs. Medical advances that delay onset of AD for 5 years result in 41% lower prevalence and 40% lower cost of AD in 2050. For one cohort of older individuals, who would go on to acquire AD, a 5-year delay leads to 2.7 additional life years (about 5 AD-free), slightly higher formal care costs due to longer life but lower informal care costs for a total value of $511,208 per person. We find Medical advances delaying onset of AD generate significant economic and longevity benefits. The findings inform clinicians, policymakers, businesses and the public about the value of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of AD.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease; Medicare; medical expenditures; medical innovation

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