Display options
Cite
Lee JY, Kim H. Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes. Environ Int. 2016;94:489-494doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007.
Lee, J. Y., & Kim, H. (2016). Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes. Environment international, 94489-494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007
Lee, Jae Young, and Kim, Ho. "Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes." Environment international vol. 94 (2016): 489-494. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007
Lee JY, Kim H. Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes. Environ Int. 2016 Sep;94:489-494. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007. Epub 2016 Jun 15. PMID: 27316627.
Copy Download .nbib Format: NLM
Share it on

Environ Int. 2016 Sep;94:489-494. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007. Epub 2016 Jun 15.

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

Environment international

Jae Young Lee, Ho Kim

Affiliations

  1. Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea. Electronic address: [email protected].
  2. Graduate School of Public Health, Asian Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 27316627 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007

Abstract

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks.

Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Climate change; Mortality; Population; Projection; Society aging

MeSH terms

Publication Types