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Imai C, Cheong HK, Kim H, et al. Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea. Trop Med Health. 2016;44:23doi: 10.1186/s41182-016-0021-x.
Imai, C., Cheong, H. K., Kim, H., Honda, Y., Eum, J. H., Kim, C. T., Kim, J. S., Kim, Y., Behera, S. K., Hassan, M. N., Nealon, J., Chung, H., & Hashizume, M. (2016). Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea. Tropical medicine and health, 4423. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-016-0021-x
Imai, Chisato, et al. "Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea." Tropical medicine and health vol. 44 (2016): 23. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-016-0021-x
Imai C, Cheong HK, Kim H, Honda Y, Eum JH, Kim CT, Kim JS, Kim Y, Behera SK, Hassan MN, Nealon J, Chung H, Hashizume M. Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea. Trop Med Health. 2016 Aug 04;44:23. doi: 10.1186/s41182-016-0021-x. eCollection 2016. PMID: 27524928; PMCID: PMC4972963.
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Trop Med Health. 2016 Aug 04;44:23. doi: 10.1186/s41182-016-0021-x. eCollection 2016.

Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea.

Tropical medicine and health

Chisato Imai, Hae-Kwan Cheong, Ho Kim, Yasushi Honda, Jin-Hee Eum, Clara T Kim, Jin Seob Kim, Yoonhee Kim, Swadhin K Behera, Mohd Nasir Hassan, Joshua Nealon, Hyenmi Chung, Masahiro Hashizume

Affiliations

  1. School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Avenue, Brisbane, 4064 QLD Australia ; Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki, 852-8523 Japan.
  2. Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 300 Cheoncheon-dong, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do 440-746 Republic of Korea.
  3. Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 599 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  4. Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, The University of Tsukuba, Comprehensive Research Building D 709, 1-1-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba, Japan.
  5. Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki, 852-8523 Japan.
  6. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama Institute for Earth Science, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001 Japan.
  7. World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines.
  8. World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines ; National Institute of Environmental Research, Hwangyong-ro 42, Seogu, Incheon Republic of Korea.

PMID: 27524928 PMCID: PMC4972963 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-016-0021-x

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a significant public health issue in Papua New Guinea (PNG) as the burden is among the highest in Asia and the Pacific region. Though PNG's vulnerability to climate change and sensitivity of malaria mosquitoes to weather are well-documented, there are few in-depth epidemiological studies conducted on the potential impacts of climate on malaria incidence in the country.

METHODS: This study explored what and how local weather and global climate variability impact on malaria incidence in five regions of PNG. Time series methods were applied to evaluate the associations of malaria incidence with weather and climate factors, respectively. Local weather factors including precipitation and temperature and global climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ENSO Modoki, the Southern Annular Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole were considered in analyses.

RESULTS: The results showed that malaria incidence was associated with local weather factors in most regions but at the different lag times and in directions. Meanwhile, there were trends in associations with global climate factors by geographical locations of study sites.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall heterogeneous associations suggest the importance of location-specific approaches in PNG not only for further investigations but also public health interventions in repose to the potential impacts arising from climate change.

Keywords: Climate; Climate change; Malaria; Papua New Guinea; Weather

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