Display options
Cite
Ommen DM, Saunders CP, Neumann C. An argument against presenting interval quantifications as a surrogate for the value of evidence. Sci Justice. 2016;56(5):383-387doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.07.001.
Ommen, D. M., Saunders, C. P., & Neumann, C. (2016). An argument against presenting interval quantifications as a surrogate for the value of evidence. Science & justice : journal of the Forensic Science Society, 56(5), 383-387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2016.07.001
Ommen, Danica M, et al. "An argument against presenting interval quantifications as a surrogate for the value of evidence." Science & justice : journal of the Forensic Science Society vol. 56,5 (2016): 383-387. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2016.07.001
Ommen DM, Saunders CP, Neumann C. An argument against presenting interval quantifications as a surrogate for the value of evidence. Sci Justice. 2016 Sep;56(5):383-387. doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.07.001. Epub 2016 Jul 29. PMID: 27702456.
Copy Download .nbib Format: NLM
Share it on

Sci Justice. 2016 Sep;56(5):383-387. doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.07.001. Epub 2016 Jul 29.

An argument against presenting interval quantifications as a surrogate for the value of evidence.

Science & justice : journal of the Forensic Science Society

Danica M Ommen, Christopher P Saunders, Cedric Neumann

Affiliations

  1. South Dakota State University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Brookings, SD, United States. Electronic address: [email protected].
  2. South Dakota State University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Brookings, SD, United States.

PMID: 27702456 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.07.001

Abstract

In the various forensic science disciplines, recent analytical developments paired with modern statistical computational tools have led to the proliferation of adhoc techniques for quantifying the probative value of forensic evidence. Many legal and scientific scholars agree that the value of evidence should be reported as a likelihood ratio or a Bayes Factor. Quantifying the probative value of forensic evidence is subjected to many sources of variability and uncertainty. There is currently a debate on how to characterize the reliability of the value of evidence. Some authors have proposed associating a confidence/credible interval with the value of evidence assigned to a collection of forensic evidence. In this paper, we will discuss the reasons for our opinion that interval quantifications for the value of evidence should not be used directly in the Bayesian decision-making process to determine the support of the evidence for one of the two competing hypotheses.

Copyright © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Bayes Factor; Evidence interpretation; Interval; Likelihood ratio

Publication Types