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Amin R, Nabors NS, Nelson AM, et al. Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012. Stat Public Policy (Phila). 2015;2(1):87-92doi: 10.1080/2330443X.2015.1092899.
Amin, R., Nabors, N. S., Nelson, A. M., Saqlain, M., & Kulldorff, M. (2015). Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012. Statistics and public policy (Philadelphia, Pa.), 2(1), 87-92. https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2015.1092899
Amin, Raid, et al. "Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012." Statistics and public policy (Philadelphia, Pa.) vol. 2,1 (2015): 87-92. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2015.1092899
Amin R, Nabors NS, Nelson AM, Saqlain M, Kulldorff M. Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012. Stat Public Policy (Phila). 2015;2(1):87-92. doi: 10.1080/2330443X.2015.1092899. Epub 2015 Sep 18. PMID: 28078318; PMCID: PMC5221697.
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Stat Public Policy (Phila). 2015;2(1):87-92. doi: 10.1080/2330443X.2015.1092899. Epub 2015 Sep 18.

Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012.

Statistics and public policy (Philadelphia, Pa.)

Raid Amin, Nicole S Nabors, Arlene M Nelson, Murshid Saqlain, Martin Kulldorff

Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of West Florida, Pensacola, FL, USA.
  2. Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Phramacoeconomics, Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.

PMID: 28078318 PMCID: PMC5221697 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2015.1092899

Abstract

BACKGROUND: While rape is a very serious crime and public health problem, no spatial mapping has been attempted for rape on the national scale. This paper addresses the three research questions: (1) Are reported rape cases randomly distributed across the USA, after being adjusted for population density and age, or are there geographical clusters of reported rape cases? (2) Are the geographical clusters of reported rapes still present after adjusting for differences in poverty levels? (3) Are there geographical clusters where the proportion of reported rape cases that lead to an arrest is exceptionally low or exceptionally high?

METHODS: We studied the geographical variation of reported rape events (2003-2012) and rape arrests (2000-2012) in the 48 contiguous states of the USA. The disease Surveillance software SaTScan™ with its spatial scan statistic is used to evaluate the spatial variation in rapes. The spatial scan statistic has been widely used as a geographical surveillance tool for diseases, and we used it to identify geographical areas with clusters of reported rape and clusters of arrest rates for rape.

RESULTS: The spatial scan statistic was used to identify geographical areas with exceptionally high rates of reported rape. The analyses were adjusted for age, and in secondary analyses, for both age and poverty level. We also identified geographical areas with either a low or a high proportion of reported rapes leading to an arrest.

CONCLUSIONS: We have identified geographical areas with exceptionally high (low) rates of reported rape. The geographical problem areas identified are prime candidates for more intensive preventive counseling and criminal prosecution efforts by public health, social service, and law enforcement agencies Geographical clusters of high rates of reported rape are prime areas in need of expanded implementation of preventive measures, such as changing attitudes in our society toward rape crimes, in addition to having the criminal justice system play an even larger role in preventing rape.

References

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  2. J Adolesc Health. 2015 Jun;56(6):678-80 - PubMed
  3. PLoS Med. 2005 Mar;2(3):e59 - PubMed
  4. N Engl J Med. 2015 Jun 11;372(24):2326-35 - PubMed
  5. Stat Med. 1995 Apr 30;14(8):799-810 - PubMed

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