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Gomulkiewicz R, Krone SM, Remien CH. Evolution and the duration of a doomed population. Evol Appl. 2017;10(5):471-484doi: 10.1111/eva.12467.
Gomulkiewicz, R., Krone, S. M., & Remien, C. H. (2017). Evolution and the duration of a doomed population. Evolutionary applications, 10(5), 471-484. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12467
Gomulkiewicz, Richard, et al. "Evolution and the duration of a doomed population." Evolutionary applications vol. 10,5 (2017): 471-484. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12467
Gomulkiewicz R, Krone SM, Remien CH. Evolution and the duration of a doomed population. Evol Appl. 2017 Mar 17;10(5):471-484. doi: 10.1111/eva.12467. eCollection 2017 Jun. PMID: 28515780; PMCID: PMC5427677.
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Evol Appl. 2017 Mar 17;10(5):471-484. doi: 10.1111/eva.12467. eCollection 2017 Jun.

Evolution and the duration of a doomed population.

Evolutionary applications

Richard Gomulkiewicz, Stephen M Krone, Christopher H Remien

Affiliations

  1. School of Biological Sciences Washington State University Pullman WA USA.
  2. Department of Mathematics University of Idaho Moscow ID USA.

PMID: 28515780 PMCID: PMC5427677 DOI: 10.1111/eva.12467

Abstract

Many populations are doomed to extinction, but little is known about how evolution contributes to their longevity. We address this by modeling an asexual population consisting of genotypes whose abundances change independently according to a system of continuous branching diffusions. Each genotype is characterized by its initial abundance, growth rate, and reproductive variance. The latter two components determine the genotype's "risk function" which describes its per capita probability of extinction at any time. We derive the probability distribution of extinction times for a polymorphic population, which can be expressed in terms of genotypic risk functions. We use this to explore how spontaneous mutation, abrupt environmental change, or population supplementation and removal affect the time to extinction. Results suggest that evolution based on new mutations does little to alter the time to extinction. Abrupt environmental changes that affect all genotypes can have more substantial impact, but, curiously, a beneficial change does more to extend the lifetime of thriving than threatened populations of the same initial abundance. Our results can be used to design policies that meet specific conservation goals or management strategies that speed the elimination of agricultural pests or human pathogens.

Keywords: conservation biology; continuous branching diffusion; environment change; evolutionary rescue; extinction; human pathogens; mutation; pest management

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