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Lim EP, Hendon HH. Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016. Sci Rep. 2017;7(1):12619doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12674-z.
Lim, E. P., & Hendon, H. H. (2017). Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016. Scientific reports, 7(1), 12619. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-12674-z
Lim, Eun-Pa, and Hendon, Harry H. "Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016." Scientific reports vol. 7,1 (2017): 12619. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-12674-z
Lim EP, Hendon HH. Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016. Sci Rep. 2017 Oct 03;7(1):12619. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12674-z. PMID: 28974713; PMCID: PMC5626717.
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Sci Rep. 2017 Oct 03;7(1):12619. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12674-z.

Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016.

Scientific reports

Eun-Pa Lim, Harry H Hendon

Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia. [email protected].
  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia.

PMID: 28974713 PMCID: PMC5626717 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-12674-z

Abstract

In the latter half of 2016 Indonesia and Australia experienced extreme wet conditions and East Africa suffered devastating drought, which have largely been attributed to the occurrence of strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weak La Niña. Here we examine the causes and predictability of the strong negative IOD and its impact on the development of La Niña in 2016. Analysis on atmosphere and ocean reanalyses and forecast sensitivity experiments using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical seasonal forecast system reveals that this strong negative IOD, which peaked in July-September, developed primarily by the Indian Ocean surface and subsurface conditions. The long-term trend over the last 55 years in sea surface and subsurface temperatures, which is characterised by warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific and cooling in the equatorial eastern Pacific, contributed positively to the extraordinary strength of this IOD. We further show that the strong negative IOD was a key promoter of the weak La Niña of 2016. Without the remote forcing from the IOD, this weak La Niña may have been substantially weaker because of the extraordinarily long-lasting warm surface condition over the dateline from the tail end of strong El Niño of 2015-16.

References

  1. Nature. 1999 Sep 23;401(6751):360-3 - PubMed
  2. Nature. 2014 Jun 12;510(7504):254-8 - PubMed

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