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Risk Anal. 2018 Mar;38(3):548-561. doi: 10.1111/risa.12851. Epub 2017 Oct 23.

Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

Alexa Tanner, Joseph Árvai

Affiliations

  1. Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
  2. Erb Institute for Global Sustainable Enterprise, School for Environment & Sustainability, and Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, MI, USA.
  3. Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.

PMID: 29059702 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12851

Abstract

Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large-scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013. Our findings, which come from an online survey of residents, reveal that direct experience with flooding is not a differentiating factor for risk perceptions when comparing evacuees with nonevacuees who might all experience future risks. However, we do find that judgments about vulnerability-as a function of how people perceive physical distance-do differ according to one's evacuation experience. Our results also indicate that concern about climate change is an important predictor of flood risk perceptions, as is trust in government risk managers. In terms of mitigation preferences, our results reveal differences in support for large infrastructure projects based on whether respondents feel they might actually benefit from them.

© 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Keywords: Climate change; flooding; natural hazards; risk management; risk perception

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