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Clin Exp Gastroenterol. 2018 Apr 09;11:143-152. doi: 10.2147/CEG.S140655. eCollection 2018.

Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and model for end-stage liver disease score accurately predict the in-hospital mortality of black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis at initial hospitalization: a retrospective cohort study.

Clinical and experimental gastroenterology

Alassan Kouamé Mahassadi, Justine Laure Konang Nguieguia, Henriette Ya Kissi, Anthony Afum-Adjei Awuah, Aboubacar Demba Bangoura, Stanislas Adjeka Doffou, Alain Koffi Attia

Affiliations

  1. Medicine and Hepatogastroenterology Unit, Centre Hospitalier et Universitaire de Yopougon, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
  2. Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kumasi, Ghana.

PMID: 29670387 PMCID: PMC5898600 DOI: 10.2147/CEG.S140655

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Prediction of mortality at initial hospitalization is unknown in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

AIM: This study aimed to look at the role of MELD score and SIRS as the predictors of morbidity and mortality at initial hospitalization.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled 159 patients with cirrhosis (median age: 49 years, 70.4% males). The role of Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) score, MELD score, and SIRS on mortality was determined by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the prognosis factors were assessed with Cox regression model.

RESULTS: At initial hospitalization, 74.2%, 20.1%, and 37.7% of the patients with cirrhosis showed the presence of ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, and esophageal varices, respectively. During the in-hospital follow-up, 40 (25.2%) patients died. The overall incidence of mortality was found to be 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.2-4.1] per 100 person-days. Survival probabilities were found to be high in case of patients who were SIRS negative (log-rank test= 4.51,

CONCLUSION: MELD score and SIRS can be used as tools for the prediction of mortality in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Keywords: Africa; MELD; SIRS; cirrhosis; mortality

Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

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