Sci Rep. 2020 Mar 05;10(1):4136. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-59713-w.

Exploring non-linear transition pathways in social-ecological systems.

Scientific reports

Jean-Denis Mathias, John M Anderies, Jacopo Baggio, Jennifer Hodbod, Sylvie Huet, Marco A Janssen, Manjana Milkoreit, Michael Schoon

PMID: 32139800 PMCID: PMC7058029 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-59713-w

Abstract

Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Current research predominantly analyzes how crossing tipping points causes regime shifts, however, the analysis of potential transition pathways from these social and ecological tipping points is often overlooked. In this paper, we analyze transition pathways and the potential outcomes that these may lead to via a stylized model of a system composed of interacting agents exploiting resources and, by extension, the overall ecosystem. Interactions between the social and the ecological system are based on a perception-exploitation framework. We show that the presence of tipping points in SES may yield counter-intuitive social-ecological transition pathways. For example, the high perception of an alarming ecological state among agents can provide short-term ecological benefits, but can be less effective in the long term, compared to a low-perception condition. This work also highlights how understanding non-linear interactions is critical for defining suitable transition pathways of any SES.

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Publication Types

• Journal Article
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't