Display options
Cite
Chen L, Chang J, Wang Y, et al. Disclosing the future food security risk of China based on crop production and water scarcity under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Sci Total Environ. 2021;790:148110doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148110.
Chen, L., Chang, J., Wang, Y., Guo, A., Liu, Y., Wang, Q., Zhu, Y., Zhang, Y., & Xie, Z. (2021). Disclosing the future food security risk of China based on crop production and water scarcity under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios. The Science of the total environment, 790148110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148110
Chen, Lei, et al. "Disclosing the future food security risk of China based on crop production and water scarcity under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios." The Science of the total environment vol. 790 (2021): 148110. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148110
Chen L, Chang J, Wang Y, Guo A, Liu Y, Wang Q, Zhu Y, Zhang Y, Xie Z. Disclosing the future food security risk of China based on crop production and water scarcity under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Sci Total Environ. 2021 Oct 10;790:148110. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148110. Epub 2021 May 29. PMID: 34380286.
Copy Download .nbib Format: NLM
Share it on

Sci Total Environ. 2021 Oct 10;790:148110. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148110. Epub 2021 May 29.

Disclosing the future food security risk of China based on crop production and water scarcity under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios.

The Science of the total environment

Lei Chen, Jianxia Chang, Yimin Wang, Aijun Guo, Yuanyuan Liu, Qianqian Wang, Yuelu Zhu, Yong Zhang, Zhengyi Xie

Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China.
  2. State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China. Electronic address: [email protected].
  3. State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China. Electronic address: [email protected].
  4. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
  5. College of Water Conservancy and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China.

PMID: 34380286 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148110

Abstract

Climate change and human development may lead to a serious crisis in food security in China, especially in areas with both water shortages and large grain production. Thus, the quantitative evaluation of future food security risk considering water scarcity is increasingly important. Here, we combined water scarcity and crop production data under different scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), incorporating demographic, food habit and water resource factors, to develop a new framework for measuring China's food security risk. The results show that the water scarcity and crop production-water crisis (CPWC) of China would both be aggravated during the 21st century. In particular, northern China might face more serious water scarcity than southern China and has a higher contribution rate to the national crop production-water crisis. Food scarcity in China might occur at some point in the 21st century under all SSP scenarios, except SSP1 (sustainability development pathway). The next 40 years could be the most critical period for ensuring China's food security. Moreover, by comparing the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios, we also find that higher food production does not represent lower food security risk. The food security risk of the RCP26 scenario with higher food production was significantly higher than that of the RCP6.0 scenario at the same SSP because higher grain production comes from water shortage areas. From the perspective of societal development scenarios, SSP1 provided better results for both the risk of food security and water security in the 21st century. Our findings therefore provide useful information for a comprehensive understanding of long-term food security and water security of China.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Demographic; Food habits; Food security risk; RCP–SSP; Water scarcity

Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this pa

MeSH terms

Publication Types