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Arbulú I, Razumova M, Rey-Maquieira J, et al. Measuring risks and vulnerability of tourism to the COVID-19 crisis in the context of extreme uncertainty: The case of the Balearic Islands. Tour Manag Perspect. 2021;39:100857doi: 10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100857.
Arbulú, I., Razumova, M., Rey-Maquieira, J., & Sastre, F. (2021). Measuring risks and vulnerability of tourism to the COVID-19 crisis in the context of extreme uncertainty: The case of the Balearic Islands. Tourism management perspectives, 39100857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100857
Arbulú, Italo, et al. "Measuring risks and vulnerability of tourism to the COVID-19 crisis in the context of extreme uncertainty: The case of the Balearic Islands." Tourism management perspectives vol. 39 (2021): 100857. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100857
Arbulú I, Razumova M, Rey-Maquieira J, Sastre F. Measuring risks and vulnerability of tourism to the COVID-19 crisis in the context of extreme uncertainty: The case of the Balearic Islands. Tour Manag Perspect. 2021 Jul;39:100857. doi: 10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100857. Epub 2021 Jul 26. PMID: 34580625; PMCID: PMC8458003.
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Tour Manag Perspect. 2021 Jul;39:100857. doi: 10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100857. Epub 2021 Jul 26.

Measuring risks and vulnerability of tourism to the COVID-19 crisis in the context of extreme uncertainty: The case of the Balearic Islands.

Tourism management perspectives

Italo Arbulú, Maria Razumova, Javier Rey-Maquieira, Francesc Sastre

Affiliations

  1. Department of Applied Economics, University of the Balearic Islands, Cra. deValldemossa, km 7.5. Palma de Mallorca, Baleares 07122, Spain.
  2. Department of Economics, Universidad del Pacífico, 2020 Salaverry Ave, Jesús María, Lima, Peru.
  3. Felipe Moreno University College of Tourism, University of the Balearic Islands, C/ Sol, 3. Palma de Mallorca, Balearic Islands 07001, Spain.

PMID: 34580625 PMCID: PMC8458003 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100857

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis is dramatically affecting the world economy and, particularly, the tourism sector. In the context of extreme uncertainty, the use of probabilistic forecasting models is especially suitable. We use Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the outcomes of four possible tourism demand recovery scenarios in the Balearic Islands, which are further used to measure the risks and vulnerability of Balearic economy to the COVID-19 crisis. Our results show that fear of contagion and loss of income in tourism emitting countries will result in a maximum 89% drop in arrivals in the Balearic Islands in 2020.Given that most tourism-related occupations are not highly skilled and are characterized by lower salaries, there are greater risks of loss of welfare, especially for women, who are a major share of the tourism labour force.The model shows important differences among minimum, average and maximum estimates for tourism sector production in 2021, reflecting considerable uncertainty regarding the speed of the sector's recovery. The results serve as a basis to prepare a range of policies to reduce destination vulnerability under different crisis outcomes.

© 2021 The Author(s).

Keywords: COVID-19; Monte Carlo; Risk; Tourism demand; Uncertainty; Vulnerability

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