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Chen Y, Lin YT, Miller EF, et al. Impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 transmission dynamics in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. medRxiv. 2021;doi: 10.1101/2021.10.19.21265223.
Chen, Y., Lin, Y. T., Miller, E. F., Neumann, J., Mallela, A., Posner, R. G., & Hlavacek, W. S. (2021). Impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 transmission dynamics in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, . https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.19.21265223
Chen, Ye, et al. "Impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 transmission dynamics in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States." medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences vol. (2021). doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.19.21265223
Chen Y, Lin YT, Miller EF, Neumann J, Mallela A, Posner RG, Hlavacek WS. Impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 transmission dynamics in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. medRxiv. 2021 Oct 20; doi: 10.1101/2021.10.19.21265223. PMID: 34704095; PMCID: PMC8547527.
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medRxiv. 2021 Oct 20; doi: 10.1101/2021.10.19.21265223.

Impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 transmission dynamics in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States.

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

Ye Chen, Yen Ting Lin, Ely F Miller, Jacob Neumann, Abhishek Mallela, Richard G Posner, William S Hlavacek

PMID: 34704095 PMCID: PMC8547527 DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.19.21265223

Abstract

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US) from January 2020 to September 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of social distancing by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to August 24, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeover times in each MSA. We find that 14-d ahead forecasts are reasonably accurate; these forecasts are being updated daily. Projections made on August 24, 2021 suggest that 5 of the 15 MSAs have already achieved herd immunity.

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