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Althoff KN, Stewart CN, Humes E, et al. The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States, 2020 to 2030. AIDS. 2021;doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000003128.
Althoff, K. N., Stewart, C. N., Humes, E., Zhang, J., Gerace, L., Boyd, C. M., Wong, C., Justice, A. C., Gebo, K., Thorne, J. E., Rubtsova, A. A., Horberg, M. A., Silverberg, M. J., Leng, S. X., Rebeiro, P. F., Moore, R. D., Buchacz, K., & Kasaie, P. (2021). The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States, 2020 to 2030. AIDS (London, England), . https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003128
Althoff, Keri N, et al. "The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States, 2020 to 2030." AIDS (London, England) vol. (2021). doi: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003128
Althoff KN, Stewart CN, Humes E, Zhang J, Gerace L, Boyd CM, Wong C, Justice AC, Gebo K, Thorne JE, Rubtsova AA, Horberg MA, Silverberg MJ, Leng SX, Rebeiro PF, Moore RD, Buchacz K, Kasaie P. The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States, 2020 to 2030. AIDS. 2021 Nov 08; doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000003128. Epub 2021 Nov 08. PMID: 34750289.
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AIDS. 2021 Nov 08; doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000003128. Epub 2021 Nov 08.

The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States, 2020 to 2030.

AIDS (London, England)

Keri N Althoff, Cameron N Stewart, Elizabeth Humes, Jinbing Zhang, Lucas Gerace, Cynthia M Boyd, Cherise Wong, Amy C Justice, Kelly Gebo, Jennifer E Thorne, Anna A Rubtsova, Michael A Horberg, Michael J Silverberg, Sean X Leng, Peter F Rebeiro, Richard D Moore, Kate Buchacz, Parastu Kasaie

Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine Baltimore, Maryland USA Global Patient Safety, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc, Tarrytown, NJ, USA Yale School of Public Health and the VA Connecticut Healthcare System, New Haven, CT, USA Department of Behavioral, Social, and Health Education Sciences, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic Permanente Research Institute, Rockville, MD, USA Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA Department of Medicine, Divisions of Infectious Diseases & Epidemiology; Department of Biostatistics; Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, USA Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.

PMID: 34750289 DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000003128

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To project the future age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US, under expected trends in HIV diagnosis and survival (baseline scenario) and achieving the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals of a 75% reduction in HIV diagnoses from 2020-25 and sustaining levels to 2030 (EHE75% scenario).

DESIGN: An agent-based simulation model with mathematical functions estimated from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design data and parameters from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's annual HIV surveillance reports.

METHODS: The PEARL (ProjEcting Age, multimoRbidity, and poLypharmacy in adults with HIV) model simulated individuals in 15 subgroups of sex-and-HIV acquisition risk and race/ethnicity. Simulation outcomes from the baseline scenario are compared with outcomes from the EHE75% scenario.

RESULTS: Under the baseline scenario, PEARL projects a substantial increase in number of ART-users over time, reaching a population of 909,638 [95%uncertaintyrange(UR):878,449-946,513] by 2030. The overall median age increased from 50 years (y) in 2020 to 52y in 2030, with 23% of ART-users age ≥65y in 2030. Under the EHE75% scenario, the projected number of ART-users was 718,348 [703,044-737,817] (median age=56y) in 2030, with a 70% relative reduction in ART-users <30y and a 4% relative reduction in ART-users age ≥65y compared to baseline, and persistent heterogeneities in projected numbers by sex-and-HIV acquisition risk group and race/ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to prepare healthcare systems to meet the impending demand of the US population aging with HIV.

Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

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