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Burgess MG, Carrico AR, Gaines SD, et al. Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns. Nat Hum Behav. 2021;5(12):1608-1621doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01229-y.
Burgess, M. G., Carrico, A. R., Gaines, S. D., Peri, A., & Vanderheiden, S. (2021). Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns. Nature human behaviour, 5(12), 1608-1621. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01229-y
Burgess, Matthew G, et al. "Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns." Nature human behaviour vol. 5,12 (2021): 1608-1621. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01229-y
Burgess MG, Carrico AR, Gaines SD, Peri A, Vanderheiden S. Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns. Nat Hum Behav. 2021 Dec;5(12):1608-1621. doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01229-y. Epub 2021 Nov 18. PMID: 34795424.
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Nat Hum Behav. 2021 Dec;5(12):1608-1621. doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01229-y. Epub 2021 Nov 18.

Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns.

Nature human behaviour

Matthew G Burgess, Amanda R Carrico, Steven D Gaines, Alessandro Peri, Steve Vanderheiden

Affiliations

  1. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. [email protected].
  2. Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. [email protected].
  3. Department of Economics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. [email protected].
  4. Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  5. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
  6. Department of Economics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
  7. Department of Political Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.

PMID: 34795424 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01229-y

Abstract

Developed democracies proliferated over the past two centuries during an unprecedented era of economic growth, which may be ending. Macroeconomic forecasts predict slowing growth throughout the twenty-first century for structural reasons such as ageing populations, shifts from goods to services, slowing innovation, and debt. Long-run effects of COVID-19 and climate change could further slow growth. Some sustainability scientists assert that slower growth, stagnation or de-growth is an environmental imperative, especially in developed countries. Whether slow growth is inevitable or planned, we argue that developed democracies should prepare for additional fiscal and social stress, some of which is already apparent. We call for a 'guided civic revival', including government and civic efforts aimed at reducing inequality, socially integrating diverse populations and building shared identities, increasing economic opportunity for youth, improving return on investment in taxation and public spending, strengthening formal democratic institutions and investing to improve non-economic drivers of subjective well-being.

© 2021. Springer Nature Limited.

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