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Bragato PL, Holzhauser H. Observations on the connection between glacial phases, natural catastrophes and economic trends of the last millennium in Italy. Holocene. 2019;29(8):1322-1334doi: 10.1177/0959683619846984.
Bragato, P. L., & Holzhauser, H. (2019). Observations on the connection between glacial phases, natural catastrophes and economic trends of the last millennium in Italy. The Holocene, 29(8), 1322-1334. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683619846984
Bragato, Pier Luigi, and Holzhauser, Hanspeter. "Observations on the connection between glacial phases, natural catastrophes and economic trends of the last millennium in Italy." The Holocene vol. 29,8 (2019): 1322-1334. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683619846984
Bragato PL, Holzhauser H. Observations on the connection between glacial phases, natural catastrophes and economic trends of the last millennium in Italy. Holocene. 2019 Aug;29(8):1322-1334. doi: 10.1177/0959683619846984. PMID: 34955614; PMCID: PMC8689110.
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Holocene. 2019 Aug;29(8):1322-1334. doi: 10.1177/0959683619846984.

Observations on the connection between glacial phases, natural catastrophes and economic trends of the last millennium in Italy.

The Holocene

Pier Luigi Bragato, Hanspeter Holzhauser

Affiliations

  1. Sezione Centro di Ricerche Sismologiche, Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS, Italy.
  2. UNESCO World Heritage Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch, Switzerland.

PMID: 34955614 PMCID: PMC8689110 DOI: 10.1177/0959683619846984

Abstract

Humanity has often faced critical phases determined by climate changes combined with other natural catastrophes that implied significant socio-economic consequences. In this article, we present an observational study on the possible systematic connection between these factors for the specific case of Italy, comparing the occurrence of pandemics, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions with the glacial history of the last millennium. We have found that the natural catastrophes concentrate in the periods of ice expansion in Europe, whereas the phenomena are in attenuation in the current phase of global warming. Such a behavior has influenced the economy of the country: in fact, a comparison with a reconstruction of the per capita Gross Domestic Product since 1310 shows that the periods of maximum economic expansion occurred during the deglaciation phases. This study has confirmed the general connection of the climate with a number of Earth processes and the difficulty to foresee its changes. Furthermore, the extension of the analysis at the world level for the last 2500 years has evidenced that different types of pandemics (plague, cholera and influenza) almost exclusively spread during the phases of glacial expansion.

© The Author(s) 2019.

Keywords: Italy; Little Ice Age; earthquake; pandemic; volcanic eruption

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