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Desy J, Coderre S, Veale P, et al. Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students' undergraduate academic performance?. Can Med Educ J. 2021;12(6):6-13doi: 10.36834/cmej.68172.
Desy, J., Coderre, S., Veale, P., Busche, K., Woloschuk, W., & McLaughlin, K. (2021). Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students' undergraduate academic performance?. Canadian medical education journal, 12(6), 6-13. https://doi.org/10.36834/cmej.68172
Desy, Janeve, et al. "Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students' undergraduate academic performance?." Canadian medical education journal vol. 12,6 (2021): 6-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.36834/cmej.68172
Desy J, Coderre S, Veale P, Busche K, Woloschuk W, McLaughlin K. Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students' undergraduate academic performance?. Can Med Educ J. 2021 Dec 29;12(6):6-13. doi: 10.36834/cmej.68172. eCollection 2021 Dec. PMID: 35003426; PMCID: PMC8740250.
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Can Med Educ J. 2021 Dec 29;12(6):6-13. doi: 10.36834/cmej.68172. eCollection 2021 Dec.

Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students' undergraduate academic performance?.

Canadian medical education journal

Janeve Desy, Sylvain Coderre, Pamela Veale, Kevin Busche, Wayne Woloschuk, Kevin McLaughlin

Affiliations

  1. Office of Undergraduate Medical Education, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

PMID: 35003426 PMCID: PMC8740250 DOI: 10.36834/cmej.68172

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In 2015, the Medical Council of Canada increased the minimum pass level for the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part I, and students had a higher rate of failure than in previous years. The purpose of this study was to predict students at an increased odds of examination failure to allow for early, targeted interventions.

METHODS: We divided our dataset into a derivation cohort and two validation cohorts and used multiple logistic regression to predict licensing examination failure. We then performed receiver operating characteristics and a sensitivity analysis using different cutoffs for explanatory variables to identify the cutoff threshold with the best predictive value at identifying students at increased odds of failure.

RESULTS: After multivariate analysis, only pre-clerkship GPA was a significant independent predictor of failure (OR 0.76, 95% CI [0.66, 0.88],

CONCLUSIONS: Pre-clerkship performance can predict students at increased odds of licensing examination failure. Further studies are needed to explore whether early interventions for at-risk students alter their examination performance.

© 2021 Desy, Coderre, Veale, Busche, Woloschuk, McLaughlin; licensee Synergies Partners.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflict of interests to disclose.

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