C Weiss - International Journal of Intelligence and …, 2008 - Taylor & Francis

Communicating uncertainty in intelligence and other professions.

Cultural Transformation in the Geoscience Community AND Program Evaluation

Weiss

GSID: akTGJeW_9RoJ

Excerpt

Recent events have focused new attention on the need for intelligence professionals to present alternative hypotheses to policymakers in a way that makes clear the uncertainties in the evaluation and interpretation of the evidence on which they are based, and the fact that it is rarely possible to exclude alternative explanations. 2 This information improves the ability of decisionmakers, if they so wish, to take into account the risk that intelligence estimates may not be correct. This problem is not unique to the intelligence profession …

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