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Hodges M, Belle JH, Carlton EJ, et al. Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change. Nat Clim Chang. 2014;4:1109-1115doi: 10.1038/nclimate2428.
Hodges, M., Belle, J. H., Carlton, E. J., Liang, S., Li, H., Luo, W., Freeman, M. C., Liu, Y., Gao, Y., Hess, J. J., & Remais, J. V. (2014). Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change. Nature climate change, 41109-1115. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2428
Hodges, Maggie, et al. "Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change." Nature climate change vol. 4 (2014): 1109-1115. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2428
Hodges M, Belle JH, Carlton EJ, Liang S, Li H, Luo W, Freeman MC, Liu Y, Gao Y, Hess JJ, Remais JV. Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change. Nat Clim Chang. 2014 Dec;4:1109-1115. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2428. PMID: 25530812; PMCID: PMC4266400.
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Nat Clim Chang. 2014 Dec;4:1109-1115. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2428.

Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change.

Nature climate change

Maggie Hodges, Jessica H Belle, Elizabeth J Carlton, Song Liang, Huazhong Li, Wei Luo, Matthew C Freeman, Yang Liu, Yang Gao, Jeremy J Hess, Justin V Remais

Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA ; Emory University School of Medicine, 1648 Pierce Dr NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  2. Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA.
  3. Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, 13001 E. 17th Place, Aurora, CO, 80045, USA.
  4. Department of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.
  5. Office of Disease Control and Emergency Response, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China.
  6. Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100085, China.
  7. Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard, Richland, WA, 99352USA.

PMID: 25530812 PMCID: PMC4266400 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2428

Abstract

Despite China's rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons.

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