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Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG, et al. Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2018;376(2121)doi: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0301.
Challinor, A. J., Adger, W. N., Benton, T. G., Conway, D., Joshi, M., & Frame, D. (2018). Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 376(2121), . https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0301
Challinor, Andy J, et al. "Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders." Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences vol. 376,2121 (2018). doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0301
Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG, Conway D, Joshi M, Frame D. Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2018 Jun 13;376(2121). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0301. PMID: 29712795; PMCID: PMC5938635.
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Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2018 Jun 13;376(2121). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0301.

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.

Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

Andy J Challinor, W Neil Adger, Tim G Benton, Declan Conway, Manoj Joshi, Dave Frame

Affiliations

  1. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK [email protected].
  2. Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK.
  3. School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
  4. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK.
  5. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
  6. NZ Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University, Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington 6012, New Zealand.

PMID: 29712795 PMCID: PMC5938635 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0301

Abstract

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

© 2018 The Author(s).

Keywords: climate change; food security; migration; risk assessment; water resources

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