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Liu B, Martre P, Ewert F, et al. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. Glob Chang Biol. 2018;doi: 10.1111/gcb.14542.
Liu, B., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Porter, J. R., Challinor, A. J., Müller, C., Ruane, A. C., Waha, K., Thorburn, P. J., Aggarwal, P. K., Ahmed, M., Balkovič, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Bindi, M., Cammarano, D., De Sanctis, G., Dumont, B., Espadafor, M., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ferrise, R., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Gao, Y., Horan, H., Hoogenboom, G., Izaurralde, R. C., Jones, C. D., Kassie, B. T., Kersebaum, K. C., Klein, C., Koehler, A. K., Maiorano, A., Minoli, S., Montesino San Martin, M., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Rötter, R. P., Semenov, M. A., Stöckle, C., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Van der Velde, M., Wallach, D., Wang, E., Webber, H., Wolf, J., Xiao, L., Zhang, Z., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y., & Asseng, S. (2018). Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. Global change biology, . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542
Liu, Bing, et al. "Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming." Global change biology vol. (2018). doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542
Liu B, Martre P, Ewert F, Porter JR, Challinor AJ, Müller C, Ruane AC, Waha K, Thorburn PJ, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Balkovič J, Basso B, Biernath C, Bindi M, Cammarano D, De Sanctis G, Dumont B, Espadafor M, Eyshi Rezaei E, Ferrise R, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Gao Y, Horan H, Hoogenboom G, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Koehler AK, Maiorano A, Minoli S, Montesino San Martin M, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O'Leary GJ, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Rötter RP, Semenov MA, Stöckle C, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Van der Velde M, Wallach D, Wang E, Webber H, Wolf J, Xiao L, Zhang Z, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Asseng S. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Dec 07; doi: 10.1111/gcb.14542. Epub 2018 Dec 07. PMID: 30536680.
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Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Dec 07; doi: 10.1111/gcb.14542. Epub 2018 Dec 07.

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming.

Global change biology

Bing Liu, Pierre Martre, Frank Ewert, John R Porter, Andy J Challinor, Christoph Müller, Alex C Ruane, Katharina Waha, Peter J Thorburn, Pramod K Aggarwal, Mukhtar Ahmed, Juraj Balkovič, Bruno Basso, Christian Biernath, Marco Bindi, Davide Cammarano, Giacomo De Sanctis, Benjamin Dumont, Mónica Espadafor, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Roberto Ferrise, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Sebastian Gayler, Yujing Gao, Heidi Horan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Roberto C Izaurralde, Curtis D Jones, Belay T Kassie, Kurt C Kersebaum, Christian Klein, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Andrea Maiorano, Sara Minoli, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J O'Leary, Taru Palosuo, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Reimund P Rötter, Mikhail A Semenov, Claudio Stöckle, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Marijn Van der Velde, Daniel Wallach, Enli Wang, Heidi Webber, Joost Wolf, Liujun Xiao, Zhao Zhang, Zhigan Zhao, Yan Zhu, Senthold Asseng

Affiliations

  1. National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China.
  2. LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France.
  3. Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
  4. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany.
  5. Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark.
  6. Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand.
  7. Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
  8. Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
  9. CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia.
  10. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
  11. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York.
  12. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
  13. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India.
  14. Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington.
  15. Department of agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
  16. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
  17. Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia.
  18. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University East Lansing, East Lansing, Michigan.
  19. W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan.
  20. Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
  21. Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
  22. James Hutton Institute, Dundee, UK.
  23. GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy.
  24. Department AgroBioChem & TERRA Teaching and Research Center, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium.
  25. IAS-CSIC, Department of Agronomy, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain.
  26. Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
  27. Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany.
  28. Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
  29. Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
  30. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland.
  31. Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M Univ., Temple, Texas.
  32. European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy.
  33. Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India.
  34. Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Vic., Australia.
  35. Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland.
  36. US AgroClim, INRA, Avignon, France.
  37. University of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Göttingen, Germany.
  38. Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
  39. Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK.
  40. Water Systems & Global Change Group and WENR (Water & Food), Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  41. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China.
  42. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
  43. UMRAGIR, Castanet-Tolosan, France.
  44. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, Australia.
  45. Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  46. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  47. Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.

PMID: 30536680 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14542

Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO

© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Keywords: 1.5°C warming; climate change; extreme low yields; food security; model ensemble; wheat production

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