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Cavanaugh KC, Dangremond EM, Doughty CL, et al. Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019;116(43):21602-21608doi: 10.1073/pnas.1902181116.
Cavanaugh, K. C., Dangremond, E. M., Doughty, C. L., Williams, A. P., Parker, J. D., Hayes, M. A., Rodriguez, W., & Feller, I. C. (2019). Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(43), 21602-21608. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1902181116
Cavanaugh, Kyle C, et al. "Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America vol. 116,43 (2019): 21602-21608. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1902181116
Cavanaugh KC, Dangremond EM, Doughty CL, Williams AP, Parker JD, Hayes MA, Rodriguez W, Feller IC. Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Oct 22;116(43):21602-21608. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1902181116. Epub 2019 Oct 07. PMID: 31591236; PMCID: PMC6815162.
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Oct 22;116(43):21602-21608. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1902181116. Epub 2019 Oct 07.

Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Kyle C Cavanaugh, Emily M Dangremond, Cheryl L Doughty, A Park Williams, John D Parker, Matthew A Hayes, Wilfrid Rodriguez, Ilka C Feller

Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095; [email protected].
  2. Department of Biological, Physical, and Health Sciences, Roosevelt University, Chicago, IL 60605.
  3. Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
  4. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Colombia University, Palisades, NY 10964.
  5. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Smithsonian Institution, Edgewater, MD 21037.
  6. Department of Biology, Villanova University, Villanova, PA 19085.
  7. Australian Rivers Institute-Coast and Estuaries, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD 4222, Australia.

PMID: 31591236 PMCID: PMC6815162 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1902181116

Abstract

Climate change is driving the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by shifting the range edges of numerous species poleward. Over the past few decades, mangroves have rapidly displaced salt marshes near multiple poleward mangrove range limits, including in northeast Florida. It is uncertain whether such mangrove expansions are due to anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability. We combined historical accounts from books, personal journals, scientific articles, logbooks, photographs, and maps with climate data to show that the current ecotone between mangroves and salt marshes in northeast Florida has shifted between mangrove and salt marsh dominance at least 6 times between the late 1700s and 2017 due to decadal-scale fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events. Model projections of daily minimum temperature from 2000 through 2100 indicate an increase in annual minimum temperature by 0.5 °C/decade. Thus, although recent mangrove range expansion should indeed be placed into a broader historical context of an oscillating system, climate projections suggest that the recent trend may represent a more permanent regime shift due to the effects of climate change.

Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Keywords: climate change; historical ecology; mangroves; regime shift

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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