Display options
Cite
De Flora S, La Maestra S. Growth and decline of the COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy from March to June 2020. J Med Virol. 2020;93(3):1613-1619doi: 10.1002/jmv.26499.
De Flora, S., & La Maestra, S. (2021). Growth and decline of the COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy from March to June 2020. Journal of medical virology, 93(3), 1613-1619. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26499
De Flora, Silvio, and La Maestra, Sebastiano. "Growth and decline of the COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy from March to June 2020." Journal of medical virology vol. 93,3 (2021): 1613-1619. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26499
De Flora S, La Maestra S. Growth and decline of the COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy from March to June 2020. J Med Virol. 2021 Mar;93(3):1613-1619. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26499. Epub 2020 Sep 30. PMID: 32902903.
Copy Download .nbib Format: NLM
Share it on

J Med Virol. 2021 Mar;93(3):1613-1619. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26499. Epub 2020 Sep 30.

Growth and decline of the COVID-19 epidemic wave in Italy from March to June 2020.

Journal of medical virology

Silvio De Flora, Sebastiano La Maestra

Affiliations

  1. Department of Health Sciences, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy.

PMID: 32902903 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.26499

Abstract

March 21, 2020 was the ridgeline between the growth of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic wave in Italy and the start of its decline. We analyzed the epidemic patterns from March 1 to June 30. There was a progressive drop of cases from March (104,710) to April (94,888), May (25,705) and June (8110). Likewise, after a slight increase of deaths in April (14,804) compared to March (12,396), a considerable decline occurred in May (5170) and June (1464). Doubling times of cumulative cases grew from 2 to 6 days until March 20 to 2 weeks up to April 5, and thereafter no further doubling occurred until June 30. There was a striking North-South gradient of both cases and deaths. At the end of June, the nine Northern Italian regions or provinces, five central regions, and seven southern regions had contributed to the 81.1%, 12.4%, and 6.5% of the 240,578 national cases, respectively. Lombardy, the most populous region, was by far the most heavily affected one, accounting for the 39.0% of the national cases occurring over the analyzed 4-month period. However, in relative terms, it was preceded by Aosta Valley, the least populous region, less than 1% of the population of both regions having been affected by cases of COVID-19. The curves showing the ratio of daily cumulative cases and deaths to those of the previous day tended to flatten with time by approaching the zero growth but without reaching it, which documents a persisting circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the Italian territory.

© 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); epidemic decline; epidemic growth; epidemic wave Italy

References

  1. Giovanetti M, Benvenuto D, Angeletti S, Ciccozzi M. The first two cases of 2019-nCoV in Italy: where they come from? J Med Virol. 2020;92:518-521. - PubMed
  2. Remuzzi A, Remuzzi G. COVID-19 and Italy: what next? Lancet. 2020;395(10231):1225-1228. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9 - PubMed
  3. Grasselli G, Pesenti A, Cecconi M. Critical care utilization for the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: early experience and forecast during an emergency response. JAMA. 2020;323:1545. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4031 - PubMed
  4. Zehender G, Lai A, Bergna A, et al. Genomic characterization and phylogenetic analysis of SARS-COV-2 in Italy. J Med Virol. 2020;92:1637-1640. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25794 - PubMed
  5. Ministero della Salute. http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4133 - PubMed
  6. La Maestra S, Abbondandolo A, De Flora S. Epidemiological trends of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy over March 2020: From 1000 to 100,000 cases. J Med Virol. 2020;92(10):1956-1961. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25908 - PubMed
  7. Ministero della Salute. http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1 - PubMed
  8. Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). Popolazione residente al 1° gennaio. http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=DCIS_POPRES1 - PubMed
  9. World Health Organization Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Situation Report-133. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200601-covid-19-sitrep-133.pdf?sfvrsn=9a56f2ac_4 - PubMed
  10. Onder G, Rezza G, Brusaferro S. Case-fatality rate and characteristics of patients dying in relation to COVID-19 in Italy. JAMA. 2020;323(18):1775-1776. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4683 - PubMed
  11. Sebastiani G, Massa M, Riboli E. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures. Version 2. Eur J Epidemiol. 2020;35(4):341-345. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-020-00631-6 - PubMed
  12. Gatto M, Bertuzzo E, Mari L, et al. Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: effects of emergency containment measures. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117(19):10484-10491. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004978117 - PubMed
  13. Hope-Simpson RE. Andrewes versus influenza: discussion paper. J Royal Soc Med. 1986;79:407-411. - PubMed
  14. Smit AJ, Fitchett JM, Engelbrecht FA, Scholes RJ, Dzhivhuho G, Sweijd NA. Winter Is coming: a southern hemisphere perspective of the environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential seasonality of COVID-19. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(16):E5634. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165634 - PubMed
  15. Odone A, Delmonte D, Scognamiglio T, Signorelli C. COVID-19 deaths in Lombardy, Italy: data in context. Lancet Public Health. 2020;5(6):e310. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30099-2 - PubMed
  16. Correale P, Mutti L, Pentimalli F, Baglio G, Saladino RE, Sileri P. Giordano A. HLA-B*44 and C*01 prevalence correlates with Covid19 spreading across Italy. Int J Mol Sci. 2020;21(15):5205. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms21155205 - PubMed
  17. Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Epicentro. Influenza. https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/stagione-in-corso - PubMed
  18. Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). Impatto dell'epidemia Covid-19 sulla mortalità totale della popolazione residente. Primo trimestre 2020. https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/05/Rapporto_Istat_ISS.pdf - PubMed
  19. Grad FP. The preamble of the constitution of the World Health Organization. Bull WHO. 2002;80:981-984. - PubMed

MeSH terms

Publication Types