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van Soest HL, Aleluia Reis L, Baptista LB, et al. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap. Nat Commun. 2021;12(1):6419doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z.
van Soest, H. L., Aleluia Reis, L., Baptista, L. B., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., den Elzen, M., Fragkos, P., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Grant, N., Harmsen, M., Iyer, G., Keramidas, K., Köberle, A. C., Kriegler, E., Malik, A., Mittal, S., Oshiro, K., Riahi, K., Roelfsema, M., van Ruijven, B., Schaeffer, R., Silva Herran, D., Tavoni, M., Unlu, G., Vandyck, T., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2021). Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap. Nature communications, 12(1), 6419. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z
van Soest, Heleen L, et al. "Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap." Nature communications vol. 12,1 (2021): 6419. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z
van Soest HL, Aleluia Reis L, Baptista LB, Bertram C, Després J, Drouet L, den Elzen M, Fragkos P, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Grant N, Harmsen M, Iyer G, Keramidas K, Köberle AC, Kriegler E, Malik A, Mittal S, Oshiro K, Riahi K, Roelfsema M, van Ruijven B, Schaeffer R, Silva Herran D, Tavoni M, Unlu G, Vandyck T, van Vuuren DP. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap. Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 05;12(1):6419. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z. PMID: 34741020; PMCID: PMC8571395.
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Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 05;12(1):6419. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z.

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap.

Nature communications

Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef P van Vuuren

Affiliations

  1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands. [email protected].
  2. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands. [email protected].
  3. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, 20144, Italy.
  4. Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
  5. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.
  6. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain.
  7. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands.
  8. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
  9. E3Modelling S.A., Panormou, 70-72, Athens, Greece.
  10. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.
  11. Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, C1-3 361, Kyotodaigaku Katsura, Nishikyoku, Kyoto city, Japan.
  12. National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
  13. Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW72AZ, United Kingdom.
  14. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
  15. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, 20740.
  16. Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Str. 89, Potsdam, 14482, Germany.
  17. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan.
  18. Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milan, Italy.

PMID: 34741020 PMCID: PMC8571395 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z

Abstract

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

© 2021. The Author(s).

References

  1. Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 5;12(1):6419 - PubMed
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  3. Science. 2020 Oct 16;370(6514):298-300 - PubMed
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