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Lin PZ, Meissner CM. Persistent Pandemics. Econ Hum Biol. 2021;43:101044doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044.
Lin, P. Z., & Meissner, C. M. (2021). Persistent Pandemics. Economics and human biology, 43101044. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044
Lin, Peter Z, and Meissner, Christopher M. "Persistent Pandemics." Economics and human biology vol. 43 (2021): 101044. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044
Lin PZ, Meissner CM. Persistent Pandemics. Econ Hum Biol. 2021 Dec;43:101044. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044. Epub 2021 Jul 17. PMID: 34371338; PMCID: PMC8285223.
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Econ Hum Biol. 2021 Dec;43:101044. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044. Epub 2021 Jul 17.

Persistent Pandemics.

Economics and human biology

Peter Z Lin, Christopher M Meissner

Affiliations

  1. California Center for Population Research, University of California, Los Angeles, United States. Electronic address: [email protected].
  2. Department of Economics, University of California, Davis and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), United States. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 34371338 PMCID: PMC8285223 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044

Abstract

We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: 1918 pandemic; Covid-19; Influenza; Pandemic; Persistence; SARS

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