Display options
Cite
van Soest HL, Aleluia Reis L, Baptista LB, et al. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap. Nat Commun. 2021;12(1):6419doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z.
van Soest, H. L., Aleluia Reis, L., Baptista, L. B., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., den Elzen, M., Fragkos, P., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Grant, N., Harmsen, M., Iyer, G., Keramidas, K., Köberle, A. C., Kriegler, E., Malik, A., Mittal, S., Oshiro, K., Riahi, K., Roelfsema, M., van Ruijven, B., Schaeffer, R., Silva Herran, D., Tavoni, M., Unlu, G., Vandyck, T., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2021). Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap. Nature communications, 12(1), 6419. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z
van Soest, Heleen L, et al. "Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap." Nature communications vol. 12,1 (2021): 6419. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z
van Soest HL, Aleluia Reis L, Baptista LB, Bertram C, Després J, Drouet L, den Elzen M, Fragkos P, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Grant N, Harmsen M, Iyer G, Keramidas K, Köberle AC, Kriegler E, Malik A, Mittal S, Oshiro K, Riahi K, Roelfsema M, van Ruijven B, Schaeffer R, Silva Herran D, Tavoni M, Unlu G, Vandyck T, van Vuuren DP. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap. Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 05;12(1):6419. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z. PMID: 34741020; PMCID: PMC8571395.
Copy Download .nbib Format: NLM
Share it on

Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 05;12(1):6419. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z.

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap.

Nature communications

Heleen L van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef P van Vuuren

Affiliations

  1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands. [email protected].
  2. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands. [email protected].
  3. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, 20144, Italy.
  4. Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
  5. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.
  6. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain.
  7. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands.
  8. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
  9. E3Modelling S.A., Panormou, 70-72, Athens, Greece.
  10. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.
  11. Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, C1-3 361, Kyotodaigaku Katsura, Nishikyoku, Kyoto city, Japan.
  12. National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
  13. Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW72AZ, United Kingdom.
  14. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
  15. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, 20740.
  16. Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Str. 89, Potsdam, 14482, Germany.
  17. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan.
  18. Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milan, Italy.

PMID: 34741020 PMCID: PMC8571395 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z

Abstract

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

© 2021. The Author(s).

References

  1. UNFCCC. Paris Agreement: Decision 1/CP.17 - UNFCCC document FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf UNFCCC (2015). - PubMed
  2. Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016). - PubMed
  3. Vrontisi, Z. et al. Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 044039 (2018). - PubMed
  4. Roelfsema, M. et al. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. Nat. Commun. 11, 2096 (2020). - PubMed
  5. Fujimori, S. et al. Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals. SpringerPlus 5, 1620 (2016). - PubMed
  6. Staub-Kaminski, I., Zimmer, A., Jakob, M. & Marschinski, R. Climate policy in practice: a typology of obstacles and implications for integrated assessment modeling. Clim. Change Econ. 05, 1440004 (2014). - PubMed
  7. Fekete, H. et al. A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 137, 110602 (2021). - PubMed
  8. Roelfsema, M. et al. Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario. Clim. Policy 18, 1103–1113 (2018). - PubMed
  9. Kriegler, E. et al. Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 74022 (2018). - PubMed
  10. Fekete, H. et al. Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions. (NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Cologne, Germany; The Hague, the Netherlands; Laxenburg, Austria, 2015). - PubMed
  11. Baptista, L. B. et al. Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries (Submitted, 2021). - PubMed
  12. Bertram, C. et al. Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 235–239 (2015). - PubMed
  13. Höhne, N. et al. Bridging the Gap: Enhancing Mitigation Ambition and Action at G20 Level and Globally. An Advance Chapter of The Emissions Gap Report 2019. (United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, 2019). - PubMed
  14. Trutnevyte, E. Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition? Energy 106, 182–193 (2016). - PubMed
  15. Zhang, D. et al. Integrity of firms’ emissions reporting in China’s early carbon markets. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 164–169 (2019). - PubMed
  16. Pahle, M. et al. Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 861–867 (2018). - PubMed
  17. Meckling, J., Sterner, T. & Wagner, G. Policy sequencing toward decarbonization. Nat. Energy 2, 918–922 (2017). - PubMed
  18. Klenert, D. et al. Making carbon pricing work for citizens. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 669–677 (2018). - PubMed
  19. UNFCCC Secretariat. Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement - Synthesis report by the secretariat. (UNFCCC, Bonn, 2021). - PubMed
  20. Luderer, G. et al. Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 626–633 (2018). - PubMed
  21. Fujimori, S. et al. A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. Nat. Sustainability 2, 386–396 (2019). - PubMed
  22. Jenkins, J. D. Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies: What are the implications for economic efficiency, environmental efficacy, and climate policy design? Energy Policy 69, 467–477 (2014). - PubMed
  23. IRENA. Renewable power generation costs in 2019. (International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2020). - PubMed
  24. IEA. Renewables 2020. (IEA, Paris, 2020). - PubMed
  25. IEA. World Energy Outlook 2020. (IEA, Paris, 2020). - PubMed
  26. Daioglou, V. et al. Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study. Clim. Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02799-y (2020). - PubMed
  27. Oshiro, K. & Fujimori, S. Stranded investment associated with rapid energy system changes under the mid-century strategy in Japan. Sustain. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00862-2 (2020). - PubMed
  28. Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Gidden, M. J., McCollum, D. L. & Rogelj, J. COVID-19 recovery funds dwarf clean energy investment needs. Science 370, 298–300 (2020). - PubMed
  29. Fujimori, S. et al. AIM/CGE [basic] Manual. 1–87 (2012). - PubMed
  30. COPPE/UFRJ. Model Documentation - COFFEE-TEA, https://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/index.php/Model_Documentation_-_COFFEE-TEA IAMC (2020). - PubMed
  31. Stehfest, E., Van Vuuren, D. P., Bouwman, L. & Kram, T. Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change with Model Description and Policy Applications IMAGE 3.0. (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2014). - PubMed
  32. Huppmann, D. et al. The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development. Environ. Model. Softw. 112, 143–156 (2019). - PubMed
  33. Després, J., Keramidas, K., Schmitz, A., Kitous, A. & Schade, B. POLES-JRC model documentation – 2018 update, EUR 29454 EN. (Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2018). - PubMed
  34. Fragkos, P. & Kouvaritakis, N. Model-based analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2°C pathways for major economies. Energy 160, 965–978 (2018). - PubMed
  35. Aboumahboub, T. et al. REMIND - REgional Model of INvestments and Development - Version 2.1.0, https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/transformation-pathways/models/remind PIK (2020). - PubMed
  36. Loulou, R. & Labriet, M. ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model part I: model structure. Computational Manag. Sci. 5, 7–40 (2008). - PubMed
  37. RFF-CMCC EIEE. WITCH documentation, https://doc.witchmodel.org/ (2019). - PubMed
  38. Riahi, K. et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017). - PubMed
  39. ICAP. Emissions Trading Worldwide - Status Report 2021. (International Carbon Action Partnership, Berlin, 2021). - PubMed
  40. COMMIT consortium. COMMIT Scenario Explorer. COMMIT consortium (Zenodo). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5163588 (2021). - PubMed
  41. van Soest, H. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap First release of the COMMIT Bridge repository. v. 1.0.0 (Zenodo, 2021 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5139955 ). - PubMed

Publication Types